Why Bitcoin's Next 18 Months Could Be Its Biggest Yet?
All signs point to the next 18 months being the most exciting period in Bitcoin’s history. Prepare accordingly.
We’re often prisoners of the moment, losing sight of the bigger picture. In a world dominated by 24-hour news cycles, quarterly financial disclosures, and short attention spans, many forget to look at the macro view. Some might point out that Bitcoin has been relatively flat for six months, hovering around $60k in a so-called boring "crab market." But zoom out: Bitcoin is up 45% since the start of 2024, 140% since this time last year, and an incredible 670% over the past five years. It remains the best-performing asset class in the world across all these time frames. Yet, I believe the best is yet to come. Here are three reasons why this Bitcoin cycle might be the biggest yet.
1. Money printing will accelerate.
In 2000, the M2 money supply, representing the total dollars in circulation, was $4.6 trillion. Today, it's $21 trillion—a staggering 78% dilution. This trend is set to accelerate as U.S. budget deficits rise alongside increasing interest expenses. U.S. interest payments now surpass annual military spending and will continue to rise as older bonds, issued at lower interest rates, are refinanced at higher rates. The key issue here is that with falling demand for U.S. Treasuries (USTs) from large holders like China and Japan, the Fed will step in to buy those Treasuries if there are no other buyers, creating a one-sided trade with no equivalent currencies like the Yen or Yuan on the other side—this is pure money printing. To add to this, China has just announced its largest stimulus package since COVID, further injecting liquidity into global markets. Bitcoin, often referred to as a liquidity sponge, is positioned to benefit from this environment. Recent research by analyst Lyn Alden shows that Bitcoin has moved in the same direction as global liquidity 83% of the time in any given 12-month period since 2013—higher than any other major asset class.
2. Interest rate cuts have begun For only the second time in history, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, increasing access to capital and boosting market liquidity. Other major central banks, including the ECB and the People’s Bank of China, will or have already started cutting rates as well.
3. Bitcoin demand will accelerate.
Since January this year, institutional demand for Bitcoin has exploded, driven by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs have already accumulated nearly 1 million BTC, making it by far the most successful ETF launch in history. With giants like BlackRock and Fidelity entering the market, institutional adoption is at an all-time high. And remember: there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. The demand from these institutions is pushing Bitcoin’s scarcity to new extremes.
In summary, the dollar supply is growing infinitely, Bitcoin remains the world’s scarcest asset, and institutional demand is going parabolic. All signs point to the next 18 months being the most exciting period in Bitcoin’s history. Prepare accordingly.
