Time in the Market > Timing the Market
I want to share a powerful mindset shift that’s helped me (and many others) navigate Bitcoin's volatility: think long-term.
I want to share a powerful mindset shift that’s helped me (and many others) navigate Bitcoin's volatility: think long-term. Here’s what I consider the optimal investment timeframes for Bitcoin:
Short term: 4 years
Medium term: 5–10 years
Long term: 10+ years
Bitcoin isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme; it’s a long-term savings mechanism. Investing for less than 4 years is risky, and attempting to time the market often leads to missed opportunities. As Howard Marks, a legendary investor, puts it:
“Day traders considered themselves successful if they bought a stock at $10 and sold at $11… If you can’t see the flaw in this, that the trader made $3 in a stock that appreciated by $30, you probably shouldn’t read the rest of this book.” — Howard Marks, “The Most Important Thing”
One of Bitcoin’s biggest advantages is that it encourages lower time preference, in other words, it helps you think more long-term. This shift in mindset has powerful implications for decision-making, helping you prioritize future growth and stability over short-term gains. It’s why HODLing Bitcoin over time often outperforms active trading; while trading can have its highs and lows, patient investors tend to see better returns over time.
Bitcoin’s unique properties give it a strong value proposition that has become more significant over the years. Traditionally, gold was seen as the most scarce asset, yet even gold doesn’t compare to Bitcoin’s scarcity. If gold’s price doubles, more technology and machinery come online to mine it, making it more economical to extract more gold. With Bitcoin, however, there’s no potential for increased supply.
When you buy Bitcoin, you’re buying into a fixed monetary supply. Unlike cash (which can be printed endlessly), stocks (which can be diluted), or gold (which can have supply increased), Bitcoin is truly finite. If you own one bitcoin, you own 1/21 million bitcoin, no other asset class in the world has that guarantee.
Remember, time, not timing, is the best way to build wealth.
