Persistent Inflation & Bond Deterioration
Onramp Weekly Roundup
You can download the full report here
It's T-5 until election day in the U.S., but forget all the presidential polls.
Each of 538, Economist/Columbia Poll, and Polymarket have bias, sample size, and margin of error limitations that reduce efficacy. Especially if you are looking for market insights.
Instead, we look at one of the largest data samples where holders are polled every day. The U.S.Treasury market.
Based on price and volatility, it looks like a growing portion of holders have soured on the $28.5 Trillion in treasury securities outstanding across the duration stack.
The Abject Failure of US Treasuries
As shown below, the short, medium and longer dated U.S. Treasury ETFs total returns are all deteriorating... with the intermediate dated ETF (7-10Y), posting negligible returns (+/- 1%) YTD and over the past 5 and 10 years.
The intermediate treasury ETF barely beat even the questionably low average CPI over the last 20 years of 2.5%. Good store of value? Not if you are saving for college or a house — both having posted annualized gains of 4-6% over the past 20 years.
You can download the full report here